Hu, Beidi and Joseph P. Simmons (2023), “Does Constructing A Belief Distribution Truly Reduce Overconfidence?” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 152(2): 571-89.
Past work: Yes! Our paper: No, it’s the opposite…
[SSRN] [DOI] [ResearchBox (Pre-registrations, materials, data, and code)]
Selected Working Papers
Hu, Beidi*, Siyuan Yin*, and Alice Moon, “When Goods Were Odds: Do People Evaluate the Same Option Differently if it was Previously Uncertain?” (* denotes shared authorship)
The influence of uncertainty persists even after its resolution, affecting how (sure) options arising from uncertainty are evaluated.
Hu, Beidi, Celia Gaertig, and Berkeley J. Dietvorst, “How Should Time Estimates Be Structured to Increase Customer Satisfaction?”
Customers judge a digital platform (e.g., food delivery app, GPS app) more positively when it provides time estimates as ranges rather than point estimates.
Hu, Beidi and Joseph P. Simmons, “Different Methods Elicit Different Belief Distributions”
Belief distribution elicitations are on the rise. We find that two functionally equivalent methods elicit different belief distributions.
Hu, Beidi, Alice Moon, and Eric VanEpps, “Choice Set Size Neglect in Predicting Others' Preferences”
People are insufficiently sensitive to choice set size when predicting others' liking for a chosen option.